Fair warning: This is the shortest segment so far in this scenario. The messed up knee just hasn't left me with a lot of coherent time for writing, and I didn't want to use all of that writing time on this scenario, fun as it is. 

As 1944 goes on, and Japanese power fades, US naval power in the Atlantic becomes more and more overwhelming.  Allied anti-submarine technology has been advancing quickly, and the Allies are well on their way to winning the battle of the Atlantic even before the bulk of the US fleet shifts from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

Hitler is pretty sure he's eventually going to be fighting the United States, but he definitely doesn't want that fight to come in early 1944. The question is, how can he postpone that war to a time of his own choosing. 

Roosevelt wants to fight the European Axis now. The US is geared up for war. Roosevelt is very aware of the potential that at some point the Germans will build nuclear weapons or truly nasty chemical or biological weapons. He is also very aware that Germany is working hard to integrate the economic resources of its conquests. Roosevelt feels very strongly that war with Germany is inevitable, and that the longer the US waits, the deadlier that war will be. He is very afraid that if the war with Japan ends before war with Germany begins, the US will lapse back into isolationism, and eventually be easy prey for the Germans.

The Roosevelt administration can't unilaterally declare war on Germany. It can't go too far in provoking war with Germany without risking a backlash from the Republican-led congress and an increasingly war-weary US public. In late 1943 and early 1944, the Germans and the US play a deadly chess game, with the Roosevelt administration working to maneuver German forces into a position where they have to appear as the aggressors against the US. The Roosevelt Administration works to tie Germany and Italy to the Japanese in US public opinion. 

The Germans try to avoid situations where they can be painted as the aggressors, and work hard to split the US from the Soviets and the British. They have plenty of ways of splitting the US and the Soviets. The Germans work hard to uncover mass graves from the Stalin era and have them excavated by Red Cross units from neutral countries like Sweden. That's obviously hypocritical in view of their own activities in the Soviet Union and against the Jews of Europe, but at the same time it does have a cumulative impact. That impact is not necessarily on US public opinion at large, but on US leaders in a position to evaluate the claims with some degree of independence. 

Officially the US position is that reports of Soviet-era massacres are just German propaganda. Unofficially, members of congress and of the administration are reasonably sure that they are accurate. That doesn't translate into public condemnation of the Soviets except by a few fringe figures, but it does translate into increasing reluctance to aid the Soviets in any way not directly related to the war effort.

The Germans also attempt to split the British and the US. There, they try to exploit anti-colonial feelings in the US. That's easy to do because the US is already finding itself in a position where its forces are helping restore colonial rule in areas of Southeast Asia. British, Free French and Free Dutch forces are trying to regain control of their colonies in that area against coalitions of Japanese remnants and local nationalists, and US troops have been put in a position where they have to side with the colonial powers. The Germans point out that US arms and money are playing a major role in helping the British maintain control of India in the face of nationalist guerilla warfare. 

That argument resonates with the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, as well as with relatively liberal Republicans. There is a real fear at every level of the US populace that the colonial powers will use US military power to shore up their empires. 

The German propaganda effort isn't going to turn US public opinion around to any great degree. It does strengthen existing tensions slightly.

The Germans also go on a peace offensive. Increasing U-boat losses force the Germans to abandon the War in the Atlantic for the time being. They portray that withdrawal as a gesture of peace. They also make a series of small territorial concessions to the Vichy French and trumpet those concessions as the beginning of normalization in Europe. 

Roosevelt counters by becoming increasingly aggressive. The US navy moves into position to block any move of the remaining German surface fleet out into the Atlantic. That lets the British move powerful elements of the Home Fleet that have been tied up guarding against those German ships to other theatres, mainly the Mediterranean. That tilts the balance of power in the western Mediterranean heavily against the Italians. 

The US also "lends" the British four aircraft carriers, and makes it clear that more will be available if the British can crew them. The British and US pressure the Iranian government into asking that more US troops move into Iran to "maintain security". Those forces are deployed in such a way that any further German advance in Iran will almost inevitably run into US troops. Some British forces shift from the Iranian front to the Egyptian front, though the British insist on maintaining a substantial presence in Iran in order to make sure they have influence there in the postwar world.

As 1944 wears on and the Germans refuse to make aggressive moves, the Roosevelt Administration sees US power start to crumble as "end of war fever" starts to force the release of veteran US troops. That's a very disturbing and potentially dangerous trend. 

Roosevelt does have a couple more tricks up his sleeve though. In June 1944, a massive US fleet including aircraft carriers, several battleships, and a large force of marines and landing craft move into position near the entrance to the Baltic Sea for 'maneuvers". 

A similar fleet moves into the Western Mediterranean, escorting a large convoy of US flagged ships. They maneuver between France and French North Africa and then into the straits between Italy and North Africa. It becomes obvious that the US fleet is going to escort the convoy into Cyprus unless the Axis stops them. British intelligence agencies make sure the Germans become aware of large-scale preparations for a British invasion of Norway or North Africa. 

The US fleet plays aggressive games with German freighters bringing iron ore down the Norwegian coast, ultimately from Sweden. US ships play 'chicken' with the German ships, sometimes 'accidentally' bumping them. US planes do mock bombing and strafing runs on German freighters, and aggressively intercept German fighter planes patrolling out of Denmark and Norway

The US moves leave Hitler fuming, but he looks at the amount of naval and air power available to the US compared to what Germany and Italy can bring to bear against it, and hesitates. He moves more German aircraft into Greece and the Axis-held islands in the eastern Mediterranean. That keeps Axis options open. 

Hitler doesn't have any good choices. If he attacks the US convoy he brings the US into the war He suspects that any such attack will immediately trigger a British/US attack on Norway. On the other hand, letting the Cyprus convoy through would be a humiliating apparent admission of weakness. It would also severely undermine the German and Italian strategic position in the eastern Mediterranean. If the British can build up forces in Cyprus and the British-held pocket of Palestine, the German position in the Middle East will be almost totally dependent on supplies brought in through Turkey or through the Caucasus and then German-held northern Iran. A British buildup in Cyprus would also give Turkey more options, which would threaten German access to Turkish strategic metal supplies.

Hitler weighs his choices. If he goes to war, he intends to hit the US fleets with everything the Germans have, hopefully achieving tactical surprise. If he has to fight the wrong war at the wrong time he'll at least try to start out with a decent score against the US. The US fleets are vulnerable to some extent. Carrier-based airpower has trouble competing with the best land-based warplanes. 

So what do you think? Does Hitler go for the bait Roosevelt has set out for him? If he does, how does the battle play out? If he doesn't, what happens to the Axis position in the Middle East as the US runs more convoys to Cyprus, allowing the British to build up air and eventually naval power there?