If they did try to reach an agreement with the Soviets, the Germans would be in a stronger bargaining position because they wouldn’t have to use the Soviets as an alternative source of raw materials and they wouldn’t need to use the agreement with the Soviets as a way of deterring French and British declarations of war.

If there wasn't any agreement on spheres of influence, how would the Soviets react to a German invasion of Poland? They probably would stay out of the war initially and expect the Poles to hold out as a buffer for at least a few months. The Soviets were fighting the Japanese at Nomanham in July through early September 1939 (though most of the fighting was over before September). They had to be wary of a two-front war.

Without an agreement with the Soviets, the Germans would try to grab as much of Poland as possible, especially the oil wells in Galacia, of which historically two-thirds went to the Soviets. That would put the Germans uncomfortably close to the Soviet border. Would the Soviets sit by and allow the Germans to take over all of Poland? If the Soviets advanced into eastern Poland they would risk war with the Germans. If they didn't, they would end up with the Germans on their border, several hundred miles closer to vital targets in the Soviet Union than they were historically at the start of Barbarossa. I'm guessing that the Soviets do a partial mobilization, and maybe grab a few strategic areas just inside the Polish border, but do not push into Poland in a major way because they don't want to risk accidental clashes with the Germans.

So Germany ends up with all or almost all of Poland. Without a Soviet push the war lasts a bit longer and more of the Polish army escapes to Romania.

What happens then? I don't see Hitler turning West until the Soviets are taken care of. Going against France with no pact with the Soviets would make zero sense. Why cut yourself off from the world market without an alternate source of supply, which the Soviets historically were? Also, going after France with a long, hostile border with the Soviets makes no sense. The Germans would have to leave too much of their power in the east to keep an eye on the Soviets.

Going after the Soviets with the French still not conquered is a risk too, of course, but as long as Belgium remains neutral the potential front in the west is relatively small and defensible compared to the one in the east.

I'm guessing that the Germans would spend the rest of 1939 and the first few months of 1940 digesting Poland. They would probably be a bit more moderate in their occupation policies because they would have to worry about western public opinion, but they would be extremely exploitive nonetheless.

Given the Nazi economy, they would have to grab some additional territory to exploit by late spring of 1940. I'm guessing they go after the Soviets. As to how they do, I'm still thinking that through. There are a lot of considerations. As noted, beating the French historically gave the Germans a lot of booty, of which the French oil stocks and their artillery were probably the most important pieces. Having the French economy tied into the German war effort historically helped a lot too.

On the other hand, no British/French declaration of war means that the Germans would still have access to the world economy, to the extent that they were able to pay for material there. Hard currency would be the problem there, and the Germans would have to keep some of their economy focused on producing trade goods. The Germans wouldn't have to supply the Soviets with the machinery that the Soviets historically got from the German/Soviet pact, which would partly make up for the need to supply stuff to the world market.

Both sides would be much less capable if the Soviets and Germans squared off in the spring of 1940. I'm not sure which army would have lost the most capability.

Posted on Jan 4, 2012.

More Stuff For POD Members Only

What you see here is a truncated on-line version of a larger zine that I contribute to POD, the alternate history APA.  POD members get to look forward to more fun stuff.