Credit
where credit is due: Obviously, these alternate
histories always owe a great deal to the
many history writers whose books I’ve read. Sometimes the speculation
owes so
much to one source that I feel that it is only fair to mention that
fact up
front. The inspiration for these scenarios is the excellent book Battling
the Elements: Weather and Terrain in the Conduct of War by
Harold A.
Winters.
What
actually happened: In late May of 1940, with the
bulk of the English army and the best
of the French army trapped with their backs to the sea in Dunkirk, a
moderately
unusual weather pattern occurred. First, it rained heavily. That made
German
tanks less mobile. Then the weather remained cloudy enough to ground
the
Luftwaffe for the bulk of several days. At the same time, the winds in
the
English Channel remained calm, allowing small watercraft to cross
safely and
help in the evacuation. The Allies got a gift from the weather that
lasted the
bulk of five days and made the process of evacuation from the trap they
were in
much easier.
What
might have happened: The proverbial butterfly in
Mongolia flaps its wings and causes a
cascade of events which eventually causes the favorable Dunkirk weather
to be a
week late or two weeks early, or not happen at all. I’m going to do
three
scenarios based on changes in the timing of that weather. The first
appears
here and looks at what would have happened if the Allied-friendly
weather had
arrived too late or not at all. The second looks at what would have
happened if
the drenching rains and clouds had arrived on May 12 (two weeks early),
two
days into the German offensive. The third one also has the Allied
friendly
weather arriving two weeks early, but this time German weather
forecasters see
it coming and Hitler postpones the offensive from May 10 to May 17.
Scenarios
two and three will probably appear in future POD’s.
Scenario One:
Evacuation-friendly weather doesn’t arrive over Dunkirk. The weather
alternates
between stormy and mercilessly clear. The channel is choppy to stormy
most of
those five days, making it risky for smaller craft to come across, and
making
it more risky for larger ones. That has several consequences, all bad
for the
Allies. First, the Allied lines defending Dunkirk collapse more quickly
because
of German close air support, so there is less time for the evacuation.
In some
units, hard-pressed Allied morale would collapses entirely, with
officers
melting away and troops throwing away their weapons and racing each
other for
places on the few remaining ships out. That happened in our time-line
to many
units. Second, the Luftwaffe takes a heavy toll on Allied shipping,
sinking
British and French destroyers loaded with troops. They also destroy
port
facilities at Dunkirk more thoroughly than in our time-line, making
evacuation
even more difficult and dangerous. The high surf makes it nearly
impossible to
take troops off from the beaches and keeps the British fleet of small
boats at
home. The high winds make two out of the three routes by which large
ships can
get to Dunkirk nearly impassible. The third route involves running a
gauntlet
of German shore-based guns. Third, the British are forced to spend
scarce
fighter planes recklessly to keep the Luftwaffe from totally
annihilating the
evacuating troops. The British Spitfires take their toll on German
planes, but
Spitfires get shot down too, and downed British pilots don’t find it as
easy to
get back and fight another day as they did in our time-line’s Battle of
Britain.
The bottom line:
Thousands of British troops still escape. The evacuation still manages
to take
off an average of seven to eight thousand troops per day May 26th
through May 30th, plus another four thousand
early in the very early
morning hours of June 1st as the Germans close
in on the remainder.
Nearly two hundred thousand British troops who got away in our
time-line are
killed or captured in this one. The French lose almost all of their
best army,
with over a hundred thousand additional fatalities or POWs. The British
navy
takes a pounding, losing over a dozen additional destroyers to the
Luftwaffe.
The British airforce is also hurt badly, losing scarce modern fighter
planes
and, more importantly, scarce pilots.
The greater
magnitude of the disaster saps French morale and allied cohesion. The
French
had wanted to try to maintain a beachhead at Dunkirk to tie up German
forces
which would otherwise be freed up to attack south into France. The
French blame
the British for triggering the collapse of that scheme by pushing for
evacuation rather than a beachhead. The Reynaud government is closely
associated with the British in the public mind. It collapses, and by
June 3rd,
the new French government is trying to get out of the war. The French
are
bitter at Britain for holding back their fighters until it was too late
for
them to stop the defeat, as well as for starting the Dunkirk evacuation
before
even telling the French that they were planning it. The French also
want to see
if they can salvage anything from the defeat.
The Italians jump
into the war on Germany’s side on June 3rd, not
much before they did
in our time-line. They tie down some French troops, but not many.
Italian
intervention is the last straw for the French government though, and
they sign
a humiliating peace on June 8th. The British are
now fighting alone.
The Germans expect
the British to quickly ask for terms also. There is actually
considerable
support for that in England. British morale is low. The dominant images
of
Dunkirk both in England and throughout the world, are of the Luftwaffe
sinking
ships crowded with troops and of English and French troops fighting for
places
on last ships out. Churchill is too much of a fighter to sue for peace
though,
and he is still too popular to displace. He presides over a country
with very
little left to fight with—very little in the way of a trained army, an
airforce
short of planes and pilots, and a navy hurt enough by the evacuation
efforts
that it will have trouble keeping the sealanes to England open.
The magnitude of
the British defeat at Dunkirk, and especially the perception of British
weakness that it creates, opens up a can of worms. Across the Middle
East, Arab
nationalists see an opportunity to gain real independence. So do Indian
nationalists. Japan eyes the vulnerable Far Eastern possessions of
France,
England, and the Netherlands hungrily. The Soviet Union also sees
potential for
expansion in British weakness. Franco of Spain is a very cautious man,
but even
he sees potential for gains in Morocco and in possibly retaking
Gibraltar. Even
Argentina quietly calculates the chances of acquiring the Falkland
Islands from
Britain, and evaluates the impact of confiscating British property in
Argentina. British weakness plays a role in attracting this unwelcome
attention
to the empire, but so does the greater perception of weakness.
Potential
enemies of England see or hear of the images of Dunkirk and decide that
England
has gone soft.
The perception of
British weakness also causes her friends to have second thoughts. South
Africa
edges away from participation in the war. Turkey quietly exits a
defensive pact
with England and France against Italy. In the US, the Roosevelt
administration
looks closely at whether or not England can survive. There is a strong
school
of thought in the administration that says that sending war supplies to
England
is futile—that the English have decayed from within and would not be
able to
use such supplies effectively. There is also a growing feeling that
such
supplies may soon be needed at home. Roosevelt vacillates on that
question,
waiting for events to determine that issue one way or the other. Even
the most
loyal Commonwealths, like Australia and Canada, quietly start
evaluating their
security position if England is no longer able to protect them. They
become
slightly but definitely more reluctant to send their military assets
abroad to
threatened areas of the empire.
The rapid German
defeat of the British and French armies gives Hitler a new batch of
friends.
Almost every little country or nationality in Europe scrambles to find
a place
in the new order of things. In too many places, the rapid defeat of
England and
France is read as a sign of the decadence of western style democracy,
and the
strength of Fascism. Fascist parties grow and become more vocal
throughout
Europe, and South America. Even in England and to a lesser extent the
US, local
fascists trumpet the defeat as a sign that western style democracy is
weak and
decadent. Even some people bitterly opposed to Hitler advocate using
elements
of Fascist and Nazi techniques to shore up the power of those countries
still
opposing him.
The Germans are
actually as shocked and unprepared for their sudden victory as
everybody else
is. Hitler expects the British to follow the French to the negotiating
table,
but he begins preparing for an invasion of England in case that proves
necessary. The Italians are already grabbing scraps of English and
French
territory in east Africa. They grab French and British Somalia and
start moving
hesitantly into Egypt from Libya, and into the Sudan from Ethiopia. The
Italians are very poorly prepared for war, but they face minimal
opposition.
The South African government is very reluctant to get its forces
involved. The
Australians, who in our time-line provided a major part of Commonwealth
Forces
in North Africa, are suddenly faced with a military threat of their
own.
That threat comes
from Japan, which demands that the British and French stop supplying
arms to
the Nationalist Chinese through Burma and French Indochina. They back
up that
demand with threatening troop movements, then up the ante by demanding
that the
French allow armed Japanese inspectors at Indochina’s ports. That
quickly
escalates into a creeping takeover of Indochina. The British are very
concerned
that their colonies in the area are next. That concern is strengthened
by
small-scale Japanese raids into Burma to destroy supplies meant for the
Nationalist Chinese.
Churchill is faced
with a dilemma in dealing with Japan. England cannot afford another war
at this
point, but at the same time Churchill knows that making concessions to
the
Japanese at a time England appears to be weak will only lead to more
demands.
He tries to have it both ways by rerouting arms slated for the
Nationalist
Chinese to strengthen British Empire defenses in the area. The Japanese
are not
impressed, and begin the "armed inspectors" game with Hong Kong. They
also demand oil on very favorable terms from the Dutch East Indies.
England is in a
downward spiral. Every time they appear weak, they actually become
weaker,
because their friends edge away and their enemies are emboldened. Even
Greece
and Turkey get into the act, with both countries quietly pressing their
claims
on British-held Cyprus, and quietly preparing to seize it if conditions
appear
right. The Turks also raise their claim to the Mosul area in Iraq, and
quietly
get ready to seize it.
The perception is
spreading that the British Empire is now a military vacuum, and that
the only
real question is who will grab the pieces. That is a very dangerous
perception,
because it can easily become reality. It does. Arab nationalists seize
power in
Iraq. The Turks move into northern Iraq to protect their claim to
Mosul. In
late June 1940, with a German invasion looming and with very few
trained men to
meet that invasion, England can do little to restore the situation. The
Italians invading Egypt are poorly trained and led, but England has
very little
to oppose them given the other security needs it faces. Arab
nationalists in
Egypt look at the Italian force moving into Egypt, and decide that they
have to
move fast in order to take power before the Italians do. In early July,
as the
Luftwaffe begins large-scale raids in England, the Egyptian
nationalists
revolt.
The Italians have
been moving very cautiously, but with the British Empire apparently
collapsing,
they push forward more aggressively. Japan quickly takes a harder line
in the
Far East, and even begin quietly sending weapons to the Iraqi rebels.
They
actually tried to do that in our time-line during a later Iraqi revolt.
The perception
that
their empire is collapsing jolts the British leadership. Churchill is
ousted
and the new leadership begins negotiations with Hitler through Swedish
intermediaries. That proves to be a mistake. The fact that negotiations
are
going on does not remain secret. The Japanese want a seat at the table,
and
they quickly begin seizing British and Dutch possessions in the Far
East to
give them that seat. Indian nationalists also want their concerns
reflected,
and they also launch a revolt. Spain wants a seat at the table. Franco
declares
war on England, begins a siege of Gibraltar and allows German
submarines and
aircraft to base themselves in the Canary Islands. The Soviets build up
for an
invasion of northern Iran, but the Germans react very strongly against
that,
and the Soviets content themselves for the time being with grabbing off
parts
of northern Afghanistan.
Given the weakened
state of the empire, British negotiators are pleasantly surprised at
the terms
Hitler offers. The British lose Malta to the Italians, and are forced
to give
up claim to British Somalia, and the southern third of the Sudan. They
are also
forced to "internationalize" control of the Suez Canal, with Italian
and German troops stationed in the Canal Zone alongside British troops.
The
issue of Gibraltar is left in limbo; to be settled in further
negotiations
between the parties directly involved. The same is true of Cyprus. In
the Far
East, the Japanese have their control of Hong Kong confirmed. The
Japanese also
keep Indochina, Indonesia, and parts of eastern Burma. Germany gets
their old
colony of Tanganyika in East Africa back, but doesn’t press claims to
their
other old colonies, which are now controlled by England or France.
Franco gets
minor border adjustments between the French and Spanish parts of
Morocco for
his late entry into the war. The Turks get Mosul for their troubles.
The claims
of the Arab and Indian nationalists are ignored.
Hitler compensates
France and England by awarding them pieces of the Belgian Congo. He
also takes
a slice to add to his East African holdings. The British get some minor
slices
of the former Netherlands East Indies too.
The British armed
forces are limited by treaty, but those limitations don’t appear too
restrictive. The British are allowed to build their army back up to its
prewar
level, though there are restrictions on the number and weight of
British tanks.
They are allowed to maintain their current fighter force levels, but
are not
allowed to build any new heavy bombers. The Royal Navy will gradually
retire
older vessels over a period of five years to reach the ratio of tonnage
with
Germany specified in existing treaties—Germany can have up to 40% of
the
tonnage that England has. The British are forced to allow German and
Italian
Armistice inspectors in to insure that the British are complying with
the
treaty. They are also forced to pay for any damages to German property,
including shipping that was damaged during the war and to pay the
expenses of
Armistice inspectors. The British are forced to dismantle tariffs and
restrictions on investment between the two countries and their empires,
and to
compensate the Germans and Italians in kind for Axis merchant shipping
lost
during the war. If Hitler was an honorable man, it really wouldn’t have
been a
bad treaty from England’s standpoint.
World War II is
over. The British and French concentrate on consolidating the
remainders of
their empires, and dealing with the economic problems caused by the war
and by
the cost of paying Hitler his reparations. Hitler wants to turn east
and
destroy the Soviet Union in the autumn of 1940, but his generals manage
to
convince him that it will be too late in the season to do that by the
time he
gets his military geared up. He decides to wait for spring. In the
meantime, he
quietly works to exploit the potential of the treaty to reduce England
to a
German dependency. German Armistice inspectors become more numerous and
more
aggressive in their inspections as the summer and fall of 1940 go on,
demanding
access to British factories, military bases, and even radar stations.
German
air and submarine bases appear in the Canary Islands, then in Iceland
and
Greenland.
Germany rebuilds
the airborne forces decimated in the 1940 campaigns, and posts them in
the Low
Countries. German "tourists" and "industrialists" become
increasingly common in England and in the English Empire. German
industry moves
slowly, but relentlessly into British overseas markets. Those markets
are
already being attacked by strong American competitors. German firms buy
out
British firms hurt by the competition with money from the British war
reparations. British finances are already in sad shape. The German
competition
combines with the expense of quelling the rebellions in India and the
Middle
East and of war reparations to make it very difficult for England to
maintain
its current armed forces, much less modernize them and bring them up to
even
the limits allowed under the armistice.
Britain takes on
the look and feel of a defeated and occupied country, even though there
are no
German military forces other than the Armistice inspectors in the
country. The
scope of those inspections gradually increases as autumn and fall of
1940 wear
on. British citizens see more and more men in German and Italian
uniforms
prowling through streets, factories and bases more and more. They begin
feel
like they are a defeated and occupied country. That perception makes it
harder
to resist further erosion of British sovereignty, as a small, but
growing
number of British citizens try to accommodate to and exploit the new
power
center in their lives.
And that’s where
the story goes if I decide to do one. What do you think? The scenario
depends
very heavily on perceptions and morale. Those are very hard to predict.
If the
British had come away from Dunkirk with the perception that they were
defeated,
and if the rest of the world had come away with that same perception,
then I
say the British would have been defeated in 1940. The successful
evacuation
gave them the illusion of victory, and dimmed worldwide perceptions of
German
invincibility. With the exception of Italy, the jackals didn’t leap
onto the
carcass of the empire, and the British were able to regain their power.