Operation Torch

What Actually Happened: The allies were under a lot of pressure to open up a second front in 1942. The US wanted to go directly to an invasion of France in the fall of 1942. The British thought (probably correctly) that was a good way for the allies to get a lot of people killed. The British pushed for an invasion of French North Africa instead, followed by an invasion of France in 1943. The Americans eventually went along, though reluctantly. The Americans correctly thought that going to the Mediterranean might kill any chance of an invasion of France in 1943. They also thought it would turn the war into a matter of protecting British colonial interests rather than defeating Hitler.

What Might Have Happened: The US officially goes along with Operation Torch, but several key US military leaders oppose it privately a bit more bitterly than they did in our time-line. As a result, things just keep getting delayed. US troops really did desperately need more training, and more realistic training before they went up against the Germans. So lets say they get that training in the form of a large-scale desert warfare training and logistics exercise that delays Torch by a few weeks and also uncover deficiencies that make it necessary to delay things a little more.

At that point, Roosevelt intervenes. The allies promised Stalin some kind of second front in 1942. They are going to give it to him, even if it consists of two old men carrying broomsticks. The Torch landings finally happen in very early December, between three and four weeks later than they did in our time-line.

Short-term Consequences: That sounds like a rather minor change, but it starts having major consequences quickly. In our time-line, the Torch landings took place on November 8, 1942, before the Soviet offensive that trapped the Germans in Stalingrad (November 23, 1942). In this time-line, it takes place after that offensive. That has two consequences. First, the Germans have considerably more resources to shift into dealing with Stalingrad. Second, because they use those resources at Stalingrad, they have considerably less left to deal with the Torch landings.

How big of a shift would that involve? Well, in our time-line the Germans airlifted men and supplies into Tunisia in response to Operation Torch. They also invaded and occupied Vichy France with something like ten divisions. Let's say that in total the German response to Operation Torch in our time-line involved a little over a dozen German divisions, a considerable number of fighter aircraft, and over 600 transport planes (400 of them transferred in from other fronts, including the Russian front.) My back-of-the envelope calculations say that those transports managed to fly an average of roughly 130 tons of supplies per day across the Mediterranean in November thru December 1942, along with thousands of men.

By comparison, supplying Stalingrad from the air would have required at least 500 tons per day. Stalingrad was a major enough crisis that the Germans would have almost certainly sent all of those divisions and all of those planes into the struggle. As a result, the battle around Stalingrad would takes on a very different form. In all likelihood, the Germans still couldn't supply the trapped German army from the air. The extra planes would help, but there would be other bottlenecks that would make that impossible. In our time-line, the Luftwaffe never even came close to supplying enough for the German pocket. They were actually lucky to get one-third of the daily requirements in on a continuing basis.

At the same time, if the extra planes managed to make the gap between needs and supplies smaller, the trapped Germans would be able to hold out longer, and tie up more Soviet troops during the time that they held out. The extra dozen divisions give attempts to break through to the trapped troops more power. Is it enough to manage a breakthrough? Maybe. Let's follow the battle.

The battle for Stalingrad: With Sixth Army trapped at Stalingrad, the Germans are facing a material disaster. They are also facing a huge loss of military prestige. Hitler realizes that, and throws every reserve the Germans have into salvaging the situation. Without Operation Torch, that means a much more powerful force than in our time-line. An airlift gets under way. On a good week it supplies about 40 percent of Sixth Army's minimum needs. At the same time, the Germans take the offensive to carve out a corridor to the trapped army. With the extra divisions, progress is more rapid. It is beginning to look like a rescue is possible.

As the rescue operation reaches a crucial stage, Operation Torch finally happens. We'll look into that more later, but for now the importance is that Hitler is distracted. He is also given political cover to be used if Stalingrad is lost. It can be presented as a temporary tactical withdrawal to free up troops to react to Operation Torch. German General Manstein subtly plays to that aspect of allowing the German troops inside the pocket to attempt a breakout and link up with the rescue force.

As Hitler desperately tries to improvise a force to counter Operation Torch, he finally gives in and allows General Manstein to order a breakout attempt from the Stalingrad pocket. The transport planes concentrate on getting motor fuel to the pocket, then the German forces inside Stalingrad attempt their breakout. They manage to link up with the rescue force, and the Germans send urgently needed supplies through the corridor to bring Sixth Army back up to full fighting power.

The Soviets see victory slipping away from them, and quickly launch phase two of their offensive. They try to cut the corridor to Stalingrad, while at the same time pushing an ambitious offensive aimed at cutting off the bulk of the southern third of the German army in the Soviet Union. The initial part of this second offensive cuts through a part of German lines held by the Italians. The Soviets break through, and it looks like a disaster even greater than the one the Germans just escaped from is about to happen. Hitler reluctantly gives Manstein a free hand with his forces.

Manstein withdraws from exposed positions, including Stalingrad and the Caucasus, creates a mobile reserve, lets the Soviet offensive over-extend itself, then cuts off major parts of the Soviet army and sends the rest fleeing back in disorder. That happened on a smaller scale in our time-line, even with Sixth Army still trapped in Stalingrad, but in this time-line the Soviet disaster is amplified by the extra troops at Manstein's disposal. The offensive is stopped only by the spring thaws. The German lines stabilize considerably east of where they did in our time-line.

Unfortunately for them, that means that Stalingrad and the Caucasus oil fields still appear to be within reach, which may cause problems later. Right now, though, Hitler is more concerned about the crisis in North Africa.

Operation Torch: Operation Torch happens at the height of Germany's troubles in the Soviet Union. The Vichy French in North Africa are aware of the German troubles, and that makes the landings easier. Petain, head of the Vichy French government, quietly signals that Vichy forces should not resist the landing. Most of them don't. That infuriates Hitler, and by early January 1943 he puts his attention to gathering a force to restore the situation. His initial idea is to occupy Vichy France, push Franco to allow his forces passage through Spain, then to push out of the Spanish part of Morocco and trap the Allies in a giant pincer movement in combination with Rommel's Africa corp.

At the moment, though, Hitler doesn't even have enough in the way of reserves to be sure he could occupy Vichy France, much less any of the rest of it, and Rommel is trapped in a dwindling pocket of Libya, with collapse of his forces imminent. Also, with the situation in the Soviet Union still looking grim for the Germans, Franco has no desire to be accommodating. The Vichy French officially condemn their people in North Africa for going over to the Allies, while quietly sounding those Allies out to find out if they would be able to send troops to help defend Vichy France against the German invasion that they are pretty sure is coming.

Hitler pretends to take Vichy actions at face value, while taking urgent steps to put together an invasion force. The Italians are quite willing to help out with that, and they do have a considerable number of divisions available, but Hitler knows by now that those divisions are of little real value. Mussolini sees the writing on the wall in North Africa, and he wants an easy triumph to offset the morale effect of losing Libya. As happened in our time-line, the Italians invade the Vichy French-held island of Corsica from neighboring Sardinia.

In our time-line, that invasion happened as the remainder of Vichy France was being occupied by Germany, so there was little resistance. In this time-line, French forces on the island resist as best they can, and call for help. French naval units based in North Africa respond. The French North African government also sends a few planes on one-way missions to the island. French ships and submarines off-load arms and a few men. The Italians aren't numerous enough or well-equipped enough to quickly take the island, so fighting escalates on and around it.

Hitler is furious with Mussolini, not because of the attack but because it failed to quickly take Corsica. In mid-to-late January, the situation in Russia is still very much up in the air. A division or two could tip the balance. At the same time, Hitler can't afford to see the Allies gain access to Corsica without a fight. He transfers Luftwaffe fighter units to Italian bases in Sardinia, and uses them to attack French naval forces from North Africa. He also puts enormous pressure on Vichy France not to get involved in the fighting. He threatens an immediate occupation of the unoccupied zone of France if Vichy sends help to Corsica.

Vichy France has a major problem. On the one hand, they are in no position to get Hitler any more angry at them than he already is. On the other hand, French public opinion demands that Corsica not be given up without a fight, especially not to the Italians. After the French surrender in 1940, the French hid a considerable amount of war material away from the Germans. One of the generals in charge of that effort quietly begins retrieving some of those stockpiles and smuggling small arms to Corsica. Petain probably knows that's going on, but neither encourages or discourages it.

The French Resistance finds that the Corsica issue is very good for recruitment, and begins smuggling volunteers from France to fight in Corsica. The large French navy based in Vichy France chafes at sitting on the sidelines while French naval forces from North Africa slug it out with the Italians. Several smaller vessels defect in order to join the fighting.

The Allies see an opportunity in Corsica, but they are deeply divided on how to take advantage of it. Rommel is still holding out, and still potentially dangerous in Libya, though it looks like his forces are about to fold. The British want to put a major effort into taking Corsica, use it as a base to take Sardinia, then either go into southern France or invade Italy. The US wants to wind down what they consider a sideshow, then invade Northern France in May or June of 1943. For now, the Allies simply re-equip French troops in North Africa, which frees up arms to be sent to Corsica, and prepare to airdrop weapons to French on the island. The British want to do more, but the opportunity came too unexpectedly, and it will be some time before they have the logistics in place to take advantage of it.

Meanwhile, tension is growing on the Vichy French-Italian border. French anger over Corsica and Italian frustration over their inability to take the island leads to an escalating series of border clashes, and incidents involving Italian armistice inspectors. Mussolini accuses the Vichy government of moving forces and weapons into Corsica, and demands that the small Vichy army be disarmed. Hitler wants to keep a lid on the situation for now if at all possible. By the beginning of February he has reserves capable of taking Vichy France, but not of taking on Vichy France plus the Allies if they move to help the French.

Hitler recalls Rommel from North Africa, partly to head any invasion, and partly to keep him from being tainted by the imminent collapse of Axis forces in North Africa. Those forces collapse less than a week later, in early February. The loss of North Africa puts Mussolini in deep trouble, both with the Italian public at large and with the other Italian leaders. He needs a quick victory. He can't get that in Corsica without German help. The bulk of the Italian navy is essentially immobilized due to fuel shortages, and the Italian merchant marine has been virtually destroyed in the futile effort to keep Africa Korp supplied. He simply can't support a large enough force in Corsica to conquer the island.

The Italian army has suffered a series of humiliating small defeats in Corsica, and is gradually losing control of more of the island. This is still a sideshow compared to the fighting in the Soviet Union and North Africa, with three divisions of Italian troops fighting a French force of no more than ten thousand fairly well organized and armed men, and twenty to thirty thousand more partially armed irregulars. The French are able to hold on and actually make gains primarily because the Italians can't keep their men supplied, and morale is extremely low.

Mussolini knows that his regime won't survive the loss of North Africa, especially not if they lose in Corsica as well. He needs to pull the Germans into the fighting, and hope they can produce some victories for him. In mid-February, as the fallout from North Africa spreads, Mussolini sends a multi- division force across the border between Italy and the unoccupied zone of Vichy France, ostensibly to intercept a shipment of Vichy arms bound for Corsica. French forces in the area deploy and start fighting back.

The Vichy French government wavers as Petain weighs the balance of power. The Germans are scoring victories in the Soviet Union again, but they just lost their last foothold in North Africa. Vichy France has secret plans to mobilize enough men to triple the 100,000 man army allowed to it in France under the armistice. It also has plans to mobilize trucks to give that army mobility, and even plans to hastily arm and armor several hundred tracked munitions carriers that have been produced officially as forestry tractors. The Vichy French also have small amounts of artillery hidden away, along with small arms and even several dozen planes. The resulting army would have a difficult time defending Vichy against a full-scale Italian assault, much less a German one though, and Petain knows it.

French resistance groups and a few local Vichy troops form the backbone of a mainly spontaneous French reaction to the Italian invasion. The British and, more reluctantly, the Americans, airdrop weapons to the resistance fighters, though the long distance between North Africa and France restricts what they can do.

The French in Corsica have managed to get some primitive airstrips ready, and are getting some supplies by air from North Africa. They are also getting supplies by ship from North Africa. As the fighting in southern France intensifies, arms start flowing through Corsica and to resistance fighters in France. Petain and Vichy are running out of time. The improvised defense against the Italian invasion does better than the French have any right to expect. That simply makes the situation worse, by pushing the Italians to commit more forces, by making Hitler nervous, and by making the French public less accepting of any attempt on the part of Vichy to back down.

Hitler has put his forces on a high level alert, and demanded that Vichy immediately order its forces back to their barracks. Hitler has already decided to occupy Vichy, but he would like to wait another week or two to build up his forces if the situation allows it, and if at all possible do it without a fight. The Vichy French have been urgently trying to find out if the Allies would be able to help them in the event of a German invasion. The British want to, but their ability to do so is rather limited due to shipping constraints. The US has begun to see the potential of sending troops to southern France, but in late February 1943, they still have a lot to learn about moving troops quickly in response to opportunities. The US response would be even more limited than the British one.

In both time-lines, the Vichy French government has told the Allies that if they come to France in force, the Vichy French would join them. The key question is whether or not the Allies can come in enough force to keep southern France out of the hands of the Germans. The Vichy government looks at the gradually massing German army in Northern France, looks at the recently victorious Allies in North Africa, and makes a choice. Petain quietly informs the Allies that a full-scale Italian invasion is now underway, and he thinks that a German invasion is imminent. He also says that the Vichy army will fight. Then he orders the Vichy army to secretly mobilize and deploy its hidden weapons.

Hitler has been half expecting some such move, though he thinks that a French partial mobilization aimed at the Italians is more likely initially. He is actually hoping that French forces will get pulled into the fighting with the Italians. He knows that the key is not just defeating Vichy, but defeating Vichy fast enough that the Germans can get to the ports of southern France before the Allies do.

The Vichy French actually get almost a day's head start before the Germans become aware of the extent and orientation of their mobilization. Hitler moves quickly and decisively when he does become aware of what is going on. German forces quickly move south, and almost immediately tear holes in the improvised Vichy French lines. The French fight back fiercely in places, but the Germans are just too well equipped and too mobile to be stopped.

Churchill orders that an expeditionary force be sent from North Africa to southern France and Corsica immediately. The Allies have done some preparations for such a force, but they still have to improvise desperately. Petain issues a no surrender order. Vichy troops are to head for the hills and continue fighting as guerrillas if they are bypassed by the Germans and can't make it back to French lines. At the same time, the Vichy government begins deploying as much of its resources as possible to defend the French southern ports.

The Vichy French have a fairly large airforce consisting mainly of nearly obsolete Dewoitine 520 fighter planes. As the Germans advance toward the edge of the range of their fighters, the French deploy their fighters on strafing missions to delay the German advance. The British win the race to the ports of southern France, deploying in several of them before the Germans reach them. The Vichy French navy plays a major role in making that possible, with its battleships and smaller vessels coming close to shore and laying down a heavy bombardment.

The US also sends a smaller contingent from North Africa. A joint US/British force also lands in Corsica and begins rooting the Italians out of the island. The Germans send aircraft and a small force to maintain the situation on Corsica while they concentrate their main effort on the mainland. Fortunately for the Germans, the spring thaw has slowed activity in the Soviet Union. The Germans use the pause to shift battle-hardened troops from the eastern front to southern France. Those troops quickly clean out Vichy French conventional resistance outside of the coastal pockets, though a large number of French troops make it to Switzerland where they are interned. The Germans then launch a heavy and very skillful attack on the coastal pockets.

The Allies can't build up as quickly as the Germans, and they quickly lose control of the air as the Luftwaffe takes over French airbases and brings in planes from the eastern front. The limited number of airfields inside the coastal pockets makes them very vulnerable to German attack, and air support from Corsica is not really feasible because of the condition of airfields there. Distance is also a factor.

The Allies so have Ultra on their side. That helps a lot, but not enough. Losing control of the air makes the Allied position untenable, and the Allies eventually have to evacuate southern France. In some ways it's worse than Dunkirk. Thousands of Allied soldiers die in the evacuation. Thousands more become POW's. The remainder are evacuated to Corsica, along with over 150,000 Vichy French troops and cadres, and along with hundreds of thousands of French civilians. The French navy and most of its merchant marine heads to North Africa after helping with the evacuation. Petain and most of his government flees to Corsica. A large part of the French airforce makes it to Corsica too. A few of the most collaborationist members and former members of the Vichy French government go over to the Germans and form a new collaborationist government.

With crushing victories in both the Soviet Union and the west, the Germans are riding high. They are also overconfident. The large mass of disorganized and poorly equipped Allied troops on Corsica represents both a short-term opportunity and a long-term threat. Germans and Italians still cling to a tiny toehold on the island. Hitler makes taking Corsica his major priority for late spring of 1943. He feels that one more major defeat will knock England out of the war politically if not militarily, while slowing down the US buildup long enough for him to knock the Soviets out of the war.

The Germans feel that they have a window of opportunity until the Allies reorganize and re-equip. They build up on Sardinia as quickly as they can, then launch a blitz to take Corsica. This is a major effort, with an airborne assault combined with a Panzer-led breakout from the German-held pocket. It fails. Ultra eliminates the surprise that the Germans are counting on. The Allies rush equipment in and restore some degree of organization to the recently evacuated troops. The German airborne component is essentially destroyed, while the panzers are slowed, then stopped by Allied air attacks and use of armor.

Ultra intercepts give the Allies just enough of an edge to stop the initial assault, then superior numbers and firepower gradually force the Germans back. The battle for Corsica rages on until July 1943, but the Allies are able to build up an overwhelming manpower and firepower advantage. The last German and Italian troops on Corsica are pushed into the sea in mid-July. That sets the stage for a possible Allied invasion of the nearby island of Sardinia.

Meanwhile, back in the Soviet Union, neither the Germans nor the Soviets are anxious to be the first to take the offensive. The Germans want to tidy up in the west, and also get the new Panther tanks in operation in large numbers. The Soviets have taken enormous casualties and lost a great deal of equipment. The Soviet Union can make up those losses, but it takes a while. The eastern front is rather quiet from late March until mid-July.

As in our time-line, the Soviets and Germans quietly sound each other out on the possibility of a separate peace. The two sides are very far apart on what constitutes an acceptable peace though, and negotiations break down. Hitler is not willing to let the summer go by in the Soviet Union without some kind of offensive, but what kind of offensive? The Germans no longer have the resources to go on the offensive all along the front. An offensive to finish off Leningrad has some appeal. It would free up a large number of German troops. On the other hand it would involve city fighting, which the Germans had quite enough of at Stalingrad.

A renewed offensive against Stalingrad and the Caucasus oil is another option. The dangers of that in terms of a long, vulnerable flank has been made obvious to the Germans. That leaves an attack on Moscow. The Soviets in the Center have bled themselves white in a futile attempt to push the Germans out of a salient extending toward Moscow, just as they did in our time-line. Hitler doesn't really want to go for Moscow again, but it seems like the least bad of his alternatives. Where do things go from here? Would you like for me to continue this for next POD?

What do you think of this scenarios? Do you like this sort of longer scenario? Comments are very welcome.

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